https://www.agbi.com/ :A “question mark” hangs over Jebel Ali’s future as the Gulf’s largest port, with shipping lines reconfiguring services around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

Neil Dekker, a senior maritime analyst at Infospectrum, an Oxford-based maritime intelligence supplier, said that even if regional tensions eased, major container carriers had little reason – on security or commercial grounds – to return to Hormuz.

“What incentive is there to change the status quo?” Dekker told a Lloyd’s List webinar of industry experts. “They’re certainly not going to go back into Hormuz with any degree of certainty at the moment, which puts a question mark over the role of Jebel Ali.”

Jebel Ali is operated by Dubai state-owned DP World and serves as the Gulf’s main container trans-shipment gateway. Its free zone logged $190 billion in trade in the year to May 2025, an increase of 15 percent, while the port handled 15.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in the same year.

However, daily container movements through the port fell from about 40,000 to 1,000 after the US-Iran conflict began, according to The Wall Street Journal.

This disruption has accelerated the UAE’s push towards “zero Hormuz” shipping routes that can keep trade moving regardless of whether the strait is open.

DP World has said Jebel Ali remains fully operational and has suffered no infrastructure damage, although AGBI reported last month that it was operating at about a tenth of its pre-war capacity.

Many of the world’s largest container lines continue to route east–west services around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, Dekker said.

Cargo destined for the Gulf is instead being transferred through Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE, and Sohar and Salalah in Oman, all of which are attracting new port and logistics investment.

“There’s been an enormous shift of cargo to these other outlier ports,” he said.

Some operators are also serving the region through Jeddah in the Red Sea. However, if renewed attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels disrupt Suez Canal traffic, the Saudi port will “cease to be a relief valve” for cargo entering the Gulf.

Dekker argued that what had been perceived as a tactical, short-term measure could represent a “massive shift” towards a structural reassessment of how carriers serve the region. “Cape of Good Hope transits will actually become the new norm,” he said.

Iran is seeking fees equivalent to between 5 and 7 percent of cargo value as part of negotiations to reopen Hormuz, Reuters reported. Such charges may make calls at ports inside the strait, including Jebel Ali and Khalifa, commercially prohibitive.

Dekker estimated that a newly built container ship capable of carrying 14,000 TEU would be worth about $185 million, with a full cargo valued at between $600 and $650 million. At Iran’s proposed rate, cargo of that value will attract a charge of between $30 million and $45.5 million for a single passage.

Analysts have argued that the scale of Jebel Ali makes it difficult to replace. Nishal Sooredoo, associate director at Ocean Shipping Consultants, previously told AGBI that the largest UAE ports had developed into ”integrated logistics and industrial ecosystems” combining operations with free zones, manufacturing, warehousing and distribution.

DP World announced plans last month to develop two terminals in Fujairah outside the strait. The planned Al Rugaylat terminal will be able to handle up to 2.5 million TEU annually and will be connected to Jebel Ali through an inland logistics network.

The port operator has presented its east-coast expansion as an extension of Jebel Ali rather than a replacement.

“Building on the strength of Jebel Ali, this development deepens our commitment to the UAE and reinforces the country’s strategic role in global trade,” said Essa Kazim, chairman of DP World.