Travel Weekly Asia: Dubai’s tourism chief Issam Kazim has expressed confidence in the emirate’s full “safe and stable” recovery even as airlines and cruise companies face ongoing disruptions as a result of conflict in the Gulf region.

Kazim, CEO of the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism, said the department is coordinating with tourism stakeholders to ensure smooth operations through the current crisis.

The Dubai Executive Council has approved US$272 million in short-term economic incentives, running until September. The package includes postponement of tourism and hotel sales fees for hospitality establishments, plus deferrals of selected business and licensing fees.

The incentives come against a background of continuing unease among airlines, hotels and cruise companies over the restoration of Middle East peace – and the impact the current disruption will have on tourist arrivals to the region.

Research by Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, suggests that between 23 million and 38 million fewer people could travel to the wider Middle East region this year, depending on how long the conflict continues.

“[Recovery] could take months, even in a best-case scenario," Oxford Economics economist Aaron Goldring said in a BBC briefing. "You basically have a tail of around seven months post ceasefire of sentiment impact with the perception of safety coming back quite gradually.”

International airlines are moving to restore more services but fares are rising.

Qatar Airways said it is gradually increasing the number of flights to and from Doha, and plans to reach more than 120 destinations “by mid-May”.

Emirates’ April schedule will also restore connectivity across Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific, including many long-haul markets.

IATA director general Willie Walsh, who will step down at the end of July to become chief executive of Indian airline Indigo, said while it may take months to fully restore airline operations to normal, the crisis could not be compared to that which resulted from the Covid pandemic.

“This is not a crisis anywhere close to what we experienced in Covid. Back then, capacity reduced by 95% because borders closed. We are nowhere near that.”

Walsh said once oil begins to flow again and refineries get back to work, he fully expects the Gulf hubs to recover “and recover quickly”.

Despite signs of tensions easing in the Middle East, cruise ships are still wrestling with vessel movements, and scheduling.

Six cruise ships remain in the Arabian Gulf with little prospect of returning to planned itineraries before May. Vessels operated by MSC Cruises, Celestyal Cruises, TUI Cruises, and Aroya Cruises have remained in ports across the region since late February.

On land, with tourists leaving and the number of new arrivals dropping, hotel stays in Dubai have fallen steeply.

Occupancy levels across Dubai hotels dropped to between 15% and 20% of the usual level for this time of the year in the weeks following the outbreak of the war, according to Mamoun Hmiden, chief business officer at travel booking firm Wego.

"The uncertainty is disrupting everyone at the moment," said Hmiden.

Speaking in India, where he was signing for new hotels, William E. Heinecke, founder and chairman, Minor International, said, “We have seen many incidents in the past – 9/11, tsunami, the Covid pandemic – but travel and tourism came back strongly and strong companies outperformed.

“The question is, how soon we can come back to normality.”