If you were hoping to dust off your Ramadan planner a little early, astronomers have some news, and it’s written in the stars. According to sky experts, Ramadan 2026 is most likely to begin in the UAE on Thursday, February 19, thanks to an elusive crescent moon that simply refuses to show up on time.

Across much of the Islamic world, the crescent marking the start of Ramadan 1447 AH is set to be observed on Tuesday, February 17. But astronomical calculations suggest that this sighting attempt will be more wishful thinking than celestial reality. Experts say the moon will be either completely invisible or practically impossible to detect anywhere in the Arab and Islamic world that evening, even with telescopes or advanced imaging tools.

The reason? Timing. On February 17, the moon will dip below the horizon before the sun in eastern regions, exactly at sunset in central areas, and only moments after sunset in western regions. That razor-thin window doesn’t allow the moon to mature into a visible crescent. In the UAE specifically, the moon is expected to set about a minute before sunset, game over for moon spotters.

Adding weight to the prediction is an annular solar eclipse occurring that same afternoon. This astronomical event signals a direct conjunction, reinforcing the conclusion that a crescent simply won’t exist in the sky for hours afterward.

As a result, Wednesday, February 18, is expected to complete the 30-day cycle of Shaban in the UAE and most Arab nations, officially setting the first day of Ramadan on Thursday, February 19.

An official confirmation will be made public soon after the sighting of the moon.

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