ARAB NEWS: RIYADH: Middle Eastern carriers showed signs of recovery in June, with cargo demand surging and passenger contractions easing as regional aviation began stabilizing after months of disruption. 

According to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association, international cargo traffic on Middle Eastern airlines jumped 5.6 percent year on year, a 14.5 percentage point turnaround from May, reflecting the gradual restoration of transfer traffic through the region’s hub airports. 

On the passenger side, traffic carried by Middle Eastern carriers fell 13.9 percent year on year, a marked improvement from the 28.8 percent decline recorded a month earlier. 

In June, IATA estimated that Middle Eastern airlines will shift from a $7.2 billion profit in 2025 to a $4.3 billion loss in 2026 as regional disruptions and higher fuel prices weigh on the industry, warning that the region was especially exposed to the loss of transfer flows through its hub airports. 

IATA’s cargo report credited the turnaround in part to “a partial restoration of Middle Eastern operations, even though regional security conditions had not fully stabilized.” 

Cargo recovery gathers pace 

Global air cargo demand strengthened further in June, with industry-wide cargo tonne-km rising 8.5 percent year on year, a figure IATA said was driven partly by the Middle East’s return to expansion alongside continued strength in North America. 

International cargo traffic overall grew 9.6 percent year on year, and the report singled out the acceleration among Middle Eastern carriers as the most significant regional improvement of the month. 

Capacity in the region grew more cautiously, with available cargo tonne-km up just 2.5 percent year on year, signaling that airlines are gradually restoring capacity rather than returning immediately to pre-conflict schedules. 

“Middle Eastern carriers reached 46.5 percent as transfer traffic began returning to regional hubs, while North American carriers climbed to 40.7 percent,” the report said. 

While Middle East–Asia cargo traffic eased its rate of decline to 4.1 percent, an 11.8 percentage point improvement from May, the Europe–Middle East corridor remained the weakest major trade lane, contracting 41.1 percent — the steepest drop of any major trade corridor and a further deterioration from May. 

Passenger market stabilizes

A separate lATA report revealed passenger recovery has been slower but is clearly underway. Middle Eastern carriers’ passenger traffic decline of 13.9 percent year on year reflected both the “gradual normalization of airline operations across the region and the lower comparison base as traffic in June 2025 was impacted by the military strikes that month.” 

Capacity cuts outpaced the traffic decline by a narrower margin than in previous months. Middle East seat capacity fell 11.3 percent year on year, compared with a 13.9 percent decline in demand, pushing the load factor down 2.3 percentage points to 76.1 percent. 

On international routes, Middle Eastern traffic fell 14 percent year on year, an improvement from May’s 28.8 percent decline, while the Middle East–Asia corridor’s contraction narrowed to 11.6 percent, and the Middle East–North America corridor nearly returned to flat, down just 1.9 percent compared with a 28.3 percent plunge the previous month. 

Global market 

Beyond the Middle East, global air cargo markets remained broadly tight. North American carriers led total-market cargo growth at 13.1 percent year on year, while Asia Pacific carriers advanced 7.9 percent. 

Industry-wide cargo capacity rose just 4.4 percent against 8.5 percent demand growth, lifting the global cargo load factor by 1.8 percentage points to 46.9 percent. 

Air cargo yields eased 1.2 percent from May’s peak but remained 34 percent higher than a year earlier, with jet fuel prices still running 45.8 percent above their year-ago level despite a monthly pullback tied to improved oil flows through the Arabian Gulf. 

On the passenger side, global traffic fell 1.7 percent year on year in June, marking a third straight month of contraction, though an improvement from May’s 2.2 percent decline. 

Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, global passenger traffic would still have declined 0.6 percent year on year, as Asia Pacific and North American airlines also posted weaker results. Global passenger load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 84.2 percent. 

Looking ahead, IATA expects global seat capacity to grow 1.3 percent year on year in July, the first monthly increase after three consecutive months of contraction, with Middle Eastern capacity declines expected to moderate further, from double digits to around 6.4 percent in July and 4.6 percent in August.